The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Page B

bank account number?” Doe didn’t answer. Maybe, knowing he was going to die regardless, he figured at least by keeping silent his family could enjoy the fruits of his labor, living out their lives in a comfortable exile.
    Doe was incompetent at running a country. He drove an already poor nation into even deeper poverty and civil war. But he knew the essence of coming to power. Although dressed up in many forms, successful challengers follow basic principles. They offer greater expected rewards to the essential supporters of the current leader than those essentials currently receive. Unfortunately for the challenger, the incumbent has a significant advantage because the members of the established winning coalition can be confident that their leader will keep on lining their pockets or providing the public policies they want. But if the incumbent is known to be dying, takes too much for
himself, chooses the wrong policies, or is seen to have only weak loyalty from his critical backers, then the door swings wide open for a challenger to step in and depose the incumbent.
    To achieve power means recognizing the moment of opportunity, moving fast, and moving decisively to seize the day. And, for good measure, coming to power also means seizing any opponents, figuratively in democracies, and physically in dictatorships. Coming to power is not for the faint of heart.
    Politics, however, does not end with becoming a leader. Even as you take up the reins of power and enjoy its rewards, others are gunning for you. They want the same job that you so desperately sought! Politics is a risky business. As we will see, successful leaders manage these risks by locking in a loyal coalition. Those who fail at this first task open the door for someone else to overthrow them.

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    Staying in Power
    A T LONG LAST, THE ASPIRANT TO HIGH OFFICE HAS triumphed. Whether through inheritance, coup, election, revolt, murder, or mayhem, he has seized power. Now he faces a new challenge: hanging on to it.
    As Sergeant Doe’s brutal career has taught us, rising to a high position often requires skills altogether different from those needed to maintain control. And even the rules for surviving in power do not always resemble the skills necessary for ruling well . The novelist Italo Calvino has clearly and succinctly described the tribulations of those who have risen to power: “The throne, once you have been crowned, is where you had best remain seated, without moving, day and night. All your previous life has been only a waiting to become king; now you are king; you have only to reign. And what is reigning if not this long wait? Waiting for the moment when you will be deposed, when you will have to take leave of the throne, the scepter, the crown, and your head.” 1
    What, then, must a newly minted leader do to keep his (or her) head? A good starting place is to shore up the coalition of supporters. This may seem like a simple enough task. After all, as we’ve seen, the heights of power are unattainable without the backing of a coalition strong enough to beat back rivals. However, a wise leader does not count too much on those who helped her gain power. Remember the fate of many of Fidel Castro’s closest allies. After toppling the previous leader, it’s only a matter of time until they realize that they can do the same again.

    A prudent new incumbent will act swiftly to get some of them out of the way and bring in others whose interests more strongly assure their future loyalty. Only after sacking, shuffling, and shrinking their particular set of essentials can a leader’s future tenure be assured.
    Nor is this only true of dictators. To see this urge to build a modified coalition at work in the seemingly less ferocious world of business, let’s take a look at Carly Fiorina’s rise and fall as CEO at Hewlett-Packard.

Governance in Pursuit of Heads
    CEOs, just like national leaders, are susceptible to removal.